HPJones has already told IMS who is winning D1 in Texas. “I’m winning d1 next week so u might wanna bet on me”, he wrote after Spain. Sammy has called Ferrari the weekend’s top scorers, while Shriz has promised Cadillac will cut into the top two’s BOTT lead.
HP’s prediction has the most immediate evidence behind it. He took pole in Barcelona and finished 0.495 seconds behind Rizla, with Webbah between them. A strategic blunder was the reason for his P3 that day. His gap to the leader had been 13.329 seconds after lap 23. The late pace was there; the earlier part of the race had left too much for it to repair.
“2nd stint killed it for me,” was his verdict. HP stopped twice while Rizla and Webbah made one stop work, and he only recovered third on the final lap. There is a clear problem to solve before a win call can become a win: give that speed less ground to recover.
Rizla and Webbah are not short of answers. The Aston driver leads D1 on 53 points, Webbah has 42 and HP is sixth on twenty after retiring in Singapore. All three are checked in for Texas. HP has volunteered to reverse Spain’s finishing order against two drivers who haven't outdriven him, but rather outsmarted him.
A Williams win is a score the other promises must cover
A victory for HP would also help the team both principals need to outscore. Williams lead BOTT on 279; Aston have 258 and Cadillac 221. Shriz has refused to supply a Texas points target, but his commitment is measurable all the same:
I’m not giving you any team scores to hold me to, but I can tell you that we will be carving back into the top two’s lead over us
— TheShrizzzlerThe Spain weekend analysis found a supporting score leaning heavily on one driver. Jacko supplied thirty of Cadillac’s thirty-three Spain points from D3 and E3. Jan’s recurring wheel problems ended his race, leaving the team without the second D3 score. Jacko had delivered a breakthrough. Cadillac still needed more around him.
Shriz’s defence of the squad was substantial, rather than a promise to replace it:
Yes we did lose a few too many points than what would be acceptable even on a bad weekend, but that still does not change my belief in my team. I have an extremely strong group of individuals as my teammates, and i am completely confident that the whole is going to be much greater than the sum of it.
— TheShrizzzlerShriz’s proposed change was specific: “Only thing we’re changing for Texas is setups.” The same group must cut into deficits of 58 points to Williams and 37 to Aston. The case for patience now needs a broader score to support it.
Sammy has asked Ferrari for more than a recovery
Ferrari’s Team Principal has been less restrained about the target: “we're top scoring next week”. Fourth in BOTT, just two points ahead of Audi at 156–154, Ferrari would need a very different weekend to make that claim stick. Their four D3 points across two rounds leave the clearest opening for improvement; the promise cannot rest entirely on D0.
Even there, Sammy has room to help his own prediction. Piastrigoat leads on 38 after two third places, supplying most of Ferrari’s 48 constructors’ points; Sammy has ten. His front-row start in Singapore and fastest lap in Spain have shown speed without converting enough of it into championship points.
Cloud is checked in to return after missing Spain, seven points behind piastrigoat despite making only one start. Ferrari’s leader has a title position to protect against the Singapore winner. Sammy has set the wider team a target which requires more than protecting that lead.
HP can cut into the championship lead in one race. Ferrari would love for the score to spread, and Cadillac need their number to grow faster than Williams and Aston’s. Shriz may have declined a numerical target, but there will still be two gaps to compare when Texas is over. ;)
