Eight winners and counting: why D2 refuses to settle

D2 found six different winners in its first six races. It has since found two more.

Kat opened the season in Texas. Kyo won Austria, Walter took Great Britain, xAQxFr won Las Vegas, TheMDog collected Spa and Frizzstroyer completed the six-race sequence in Australia. Nobody repeated until Webbah became winner number seven in Qatar and xAQ returned to the top step at Baku.

Japan then gave rbn his first IMS victory and D2 its eighth winner in nine rounds.

Kat's victories at Monza and Abu Dhabi have finally introduced some repetition. They have also carried her to the edge of the championship. What they have not done is make D2 predictable: Brazil can still give the division a ninth winner and a share of the IMS record.

Every IMS division-season with eight winners or more

S7 D2 already shares second place. A new Brazil winner would put it level with S5 E2 on nine, albeit across a 12-race season rather than eleven.

S5 E2 had the same refusal to form a queue

The record season began with five winners in five rounds: LimitlessDraco3, Rickk116, BBLDRiZZY6523, Schokolade and Concept_17. Limitless finally repeated at Silverstone before Jamie1547, Webbah, gennaro1173 and HackoDK expanded the list to nine.

Gennaro won again at the Spa finale, so the record survived at nine. The championship itself was comparatively calm by the end—Rizla finished 64 points clear—but the route to the race wins belonged to almost everybody.

That is the first useful resemblance to S7 D2. Kat may be 23 points clear entering Brazil, yet eight drivers have won races around her. A championship can acquire a clear favourite without the division developing a fixed order.

The second resemblance is the cast. Ten exact driver names appear in both the S5 E2 and S7 D2 fields. Webbah is the only one who has won in both. Kat made a single S5 E2 appearance before becoming the three-time winner and championship leader here. Schokolade won in the older division and has finished second this season. Gennaro won S5 E2 twice and arrives in Brazil still waiting for his S7 D2 victory.

Same part of the ladder, many of the same people, familiar disorder.

Having the license system giving a level a clear top and bottom value on pace generates this sort of situation, but that does not automatically manufacture different winners. Cars, attendance, form and penalties still decide races. It does reduce the extremes available to the field, placing more of the grid inside a band where a strong evening can plausibly become a victory.

Promotion and demotion reinforce the effect over time. Dominance moves a driver out of one licence level and into another; somebody who overwhelms the band does not necessarily remain there forever. D2 keeps being refreshed from both directions.

If Brazil gives us number nine, pick gennaro

CONNOROCE has the strongest full-season claim among the winless drivers: 91 points and two podiums. Schokolade has already finished second. Either would fit the way this season has spread its rewards.

The history points more neatly towards gennaro.

He has made five S7 D2 starts, scored 58 points, taken three poles and finished second in Texas. He is also among the reserve additions for Brazil. Most importantly for this comparison, he supplied two of the eleven wins in S5 E2, including the finale.

A victory at Interlagos would make gennaro the ninth S7 D2 winner, tie the division with S5 E2 and make him only the second driver after Webbah to win in both campaigns.

Kat can finish seventh and settle the championship while somebody else extends the division's winning list one last time. That would be an entirely appropriate D2 finale: one title decided, almost nothing else orderly.