Williams survive the licence shake-up in our S8 forecast — but Aston and Ferrari are hot on their heels.

Williams won Season 7 by 475 points. The licence shake-up has removed the conditions under which they built much of that advantage.

Higosh won six D4 races and has gone from L4 to L1. Audi have signed him for D0. OnlineGuy99 and McBeth655 are now L2, Zloober has made the same jump, and JDJT3593—the source of 251 Williams points last season—is absent from the champions' signed squad after his own promotion. Keeping those drivers together would not have preserved the old scoring arrangement. The divisions in which they earned their returns have changed, and D4 is gone.

That is the reason behind much of this market's reshuffling. Team Principals have had to replace drivers who can no longer occupy their old licence-level seats, decide which promotions will survive stronger opposition, and recruit from the drivers released into a lower licence group. Williams have found a particularly appealing answer in jhazztan and pwjones. VCARB are asking MDog and Walter to carry their lower-division success into D1. Audi are taking on several of the largest upward moves at once.

Our pick is Williams. Aston Martin and Ferrari are effectively level behind them, while Cadillac's excellent D1 pairing will give a substantial score but needs to backed up by the rest of the team. We predict ten races in each driver's signed division. Alpine's two D1 vacancies and McLaren's three L3 vacancies remain open; their totals below cover confirmed drivers only, however we don't expect either of those teams to progress past the mid table even if they sign 2 clouds to their rosters.

The licence changes have redistributed the points

Ferrari won the first four BOTT titles. VCARB then beat McLaren by 13 points in Season 6, before Williams took Season 7 with 1,692. Different scoring structures and calendars make those raw totals imperfect comparisons, but the competitive lesson travels: the title depends on how much the whole squad supplies, and one division can either widen an advantage or consume it.

Williams' 22 wins and 46 podium finishes last season came from a team suited to the old structure. Forty of this season's 85 signed drivers have changed licence: 30 move towards the quicker groups and ten towards the slower ones. That includes former L4 drivers entering the new L3 pool, so the scale of the change is less than it seems. Higosh's three-level jump and MDog's two-level promotion ask much more than a new label on the same seat.

The most consequential changes are more specific:

Quenooo's own move from L3 to L2 removes an established front-runner from the lower grids. That gives the shake-up a second effect: the promoted driver meets stronger opponents, while the drivers left behind get a different race to attack.

D3 and E3 offer L3 drivers different start times. The two grids can develop very different strengths despite sharing a licence group. An old D4 result is useful evidence, but the new rivals decide what it is worth.

The non-L0 D0 finish bonus adds another incentive. Higosh remains L1 and Charlotte L2: each completed D0 race adds five BOTT points, without altering WDC or WCC. Ten finishes would be worth 50 before their ordinary score. In our forecast the two bonuses together supply about 81 points.

The predicted table: Williams ahead, second almost a dead heat

Order	Team	Predicted BOTT points	Forecast range	S7 place
1	Williams	930	720–1150	1
2	Aston Martin	850	660–1040	4
3	Ferrari	850	660–1040	2
4	Cadillac	790	600–990	5
5	VCARB	580	390–800	8
6	Red Bull	550	400–720	3
7	Audi	490	340–660	10
8†	McLaren	380 from signed drivers	250–520	9
9†	Alpine	240 from signed drivers	110–380	11

Aston and Ferrari are separated by barely a point before rounding. We give Aston second because cloud has already shown how much his D0 pace can earn, but there is no meaningful points gap between them. McLaren and Alpine's totals cover only their signed drivers; their final positions remain open until the remaining seats fill. Haas and Mercedes supply reserve drivers and sit outside this nine-team ranking.

What is behind the numbers?

The forecasts follow the T.U.L.I.P calculations. The important adjustment is the opposition: five points in D0 tell us something different from five points in D4. Moving up makes an old scoring rate harder to repeat; moving down can make a modest record much more valuable. The signed S8 fields decide how much of that advantage survives.

T.U.L.I.P. supplies the licence framework; the season points below are our own ten-race forecast.

We assume ten races in each driver's signed division, including the two sprints and the five-point D0 finish bonus. Extra appearances in other divisions and later licence changes could alter the totals. The ranges show the middle 80 per cent of the forecasts, with team points rounded to ten.

Zozo, BurzaJr, Kepa and Golden have no established IMS race record. Their starred points are estimates for a driver of typical ability at that level, and could change sharply once they race. The five unsigned seats receive no predicted points. In the driver tables, qualifying gaps show typical qualifying pace—smaller is quicker—and points per race include retirements. The detailed calculation stays in the accompanying study.

1. Williams: the D2 rebuild gives the champions their advantage

Team Principal: Zopz · Season 7: champions, 1,692 points

DivisionDiv	Driver	Licence change	Qualifying gap (laps)	Recent points/race	S8 pointsPoints
D0	Zopz	L0 → L0	0.58% (10)	S7 D0: 14.55 (11 starts)	80
D0	Zozo	L0; previous unavailable	unmeasured	no established record	78*
D1	Webbah87	L2 → L1	0.68% (15)	S7 D2: 15.90 (10 starts)	53
D1	HPJones	L1 → L1	0.47% (8)	S7 D1: 20.14 (7 starts)	128
D2	jhazztan	L1 → L2	1.32% (10)	S7 D1: 5.20 (10 starts)	100
D2	pwjones	L1 → L2	1.40% (15)	S7 D0: 5.89 (9 starts)	134
D3	Trident65	L3 → L3	2.23% (12)	S7 D3: 13.36 (11 starts)	126
D3	ximqf	L3 → L3	1.58% (2)	S7 D3: 5.50 (2 starts)	82
E3	Brystaroz	L4 → L3	2.37% (10)	S7 D4: 7.10 (10 starts)	47
E3	WorseTurnip850	L2 → L3	2.33% (6)	S7 D2: 3.14 (7 starts)	103

Williams' best business is in D2. Pwjones gained 102 places across 15 Season 7 D0 and D1 starts, improved his grid position in 14 and finished every race. Jhazztan gained 28 places in ten D1 starts without a penalty point; his earlier D2 record includes a win and three podiums from six Season 6 starts. Neither arrives with a huge recent scoring rate. Both earned their points against quicker fields, and that is precisely why we like this pairing.

We expect a lot from them, but D2 will still make them work. Pwjones has yet to win in IMS, and jhazztan took no D1 podium last season. Williams have bought two good chances of a strong result each week. That gives Webbah time to settle into D1 without asking him to replace his old D2 points immediately.

HP supplies the clearest D1 benchmark. Seven starts brought two wins, four podiums and 141 points, with no non-finishes or penalty points. His qualifying pace gives Williams a driver who can meet Cadillac's pair at the front. Webbah faces a harder task after promotion: his Season 7 D2 campaign brought five podiums and five poles, while six D1 appearances yielded one podium. The speed supports the move; the race record says there is still work to do. Keeping him in the car also retains experience of the operation Zopz now leads.

Zopz's own D0 season is a persuasive starting point for that new responsibility. He scored 160 points, took a win and four podiums, and recorded neither a non-finish nor a penalty point in 11 starts. His 35 gained places show how often he improved his starting position. Zozo is the difficult half of the forecast, arriving without an established IMS race record. His L0 licence puts him in the top group, but Williams still need him to make the second car a regular contribution.

Trident is the sort of driver a BOTT defence needs. He gained places in all 12 of his Season 7 appearances across D3 and D2, finished them all and collected no penalty points. His 11 D3 starts brought three podiums and 147 points. Ximqf has the quicker qualifying record, but only two official starts, one ending in retirement. We trust Trident's weekly return. Ximqf still has to show how often his speed will put points beside it.

E3 is the part of this defence that needs more than continuity. Brystaroz finished all ten of his Season 7 D4 races and scored 71 points. WorseTurnip's two podiums and win in three Season 6 E3 appearances show an older ceiling, while seven tougher D2 starts last season produced 22 points and two non-finishes. That is a credible pairing for building regular returns, without the evidence to declare it the grid's leading duo.

D2 and D3 are expected to supply roughly 230 and 210 points, almost half Williams' total. Pwjones' 134 forecast looks much more attractive than his 5.89 points per race in last season's D0 campaign. Those points came against faster drivers than he will meet in D2. Jhazztan's 100 benefits from the same move, with his earlier D2 podiums giving Williams another reason to trust it.

HP leads the D1 forecast with 128; Webbah's 53 reflects the harder task after promotion. Zozo's estimated 78 is the big unknown. Take it away and Williams fall near 850, right beside Aston and Ferrari. Zopz has built a squad we like across the divisions, but the title could still come down to what his new D0 team-mate actually delivers.

Our verdict: first, roughly 930 points. Williams get our vote because D2 and D3 should keep paying, with HP adding a strong D1 score. Ferrari have the edge on qualifying alone. Williams have the better case for bringing the points home, provided Zozo makes the second D0 car count.

2. Aston Martin: cloud leads the challenge, the licence moves improve D3

Team Principal: quenooo29 · Season 7: fourth, 869 points

DivisionDiv	Driver	Licence change	Qualifying gap (laps)	Recent points/race	S8 pointsPoints
D0	cloud	L0 → L0	0.07% (10)	S7 D0: 24.45 (11 starts)	175
D0	Raptorr	L0 → L0	0.18% (3)	S7 D0: 12.40 (5 starts)	89
D1	Rizla	L1 → L1	1.17% (15)	S7 D1: 8.75 (12 starts)	44
D1	MagMagnussen	L1 → L1	1.03% (10)	S7 D1: 11.45 (11 starts)	75
D2	rbn	L2 → L2	1.16% (10)	S7 D2: 13.00 (6 starts)	102
D2	MartimSilva	L2 → L2	1.19% (5)	S7 D2: 3.50 (4 starts)	42
D3	Hotshotll_	L2 → L3	1.84% (7)	S7 D2: 1.00 (8 starts)	102
D3	OGxFREED	L3; previous unavailable	1.96% (2)	S7 D2: 0.00 (2 starts)	67
E3	AlfieNerfBoy	L3 → L3	2.54% (5)	S7 D2: 4.50 (4 starts)	105
E3	WilierBread2885	L4 → L3	2.12% (11)	S7 D4: 8.00 (11 starts)	45

Signing cloud makes Aston a title contender straight away. The reigning D0 champion scored 269 points in 11 starts: five wins, nine podiums, no non-finishes and no penalty points. He had already won eight of ten D1 starts in Season 6. Quenooo has signed a driver who has kept winning as the opposition got harder. It is difficult to ask for a better answer to a licence shake-up.

Raptorr is why this D0 pairing looks so difficult to beat. He has ten career podiums from 22 starts and completed all five Season 7 D0 appearances, finishing on the podium twice. His qualifying pace puts him close to the front of L0. Five appearances are the catch. Aston need him alongside cloud for the full campaign, because a quick second car only helps when it turns up.

D1 has winning experience but a more uneven recent return. Rizla's Abu Dhabi victory came from 12th on the grid; his wider D1 season contained five non-finishes in 12 starts. Mag scored 126 points and took two podiums from 11 D1 appearances, after six wins in Season 6 E2. The change in opposition explains why that earlier victory rate cannot simply be carried into this prediction. Mag supplies the steadier recent base. Rizla offers the sharper swings in either direction.

Rbn's D2 win at Japan and second place at Monza give the next pairing an encouraging lead driver. Six D2 starts produced 78 points and two podiums. Martim's qualifying pace is similarly promising, but four D2 appearances brought only 14 points and a net loss of 16 places. Aston Martin can see the speed in both cars. The results have so far rewarded only one of them consistently enough to support a strong points forecast.

D3 is where the licence changes could do Aston a favour. Hotshot scored eight points from eight D2 starts last season; OGxFREED's two D2 appearances both ended in non-finishes. Those records look bleak until the opposition changes. Hotshot's qualifying pace gives us reason to expect more in L3, while OG has two Season 5 D3 wins to his name. We expect a much better return from both, though OG still needs to show that the old winning form is there.

The E3 pair have a useful reliability case. Alfie finished all five of his Season 7 appearances, including seventh in his sole D3 start and seventh at Brazil D2 after starting tenth. Bread won at Silverstone D4 and completed all 11 D4 starts. His two D3 outings produced no points, a reminder that the new field will still test him. Aston Martin have drivers capable of building an E3 campaign; sustained podium scoring remains to be established.

Aston's D0 pair are expected to supply around 260 points, against Williams' 160. Cloud leads every individual forecast at 175, with Raptorr adding 89. That assumes a full season from both. Losing three cloud appearances without a comparable replacement would cost roughly 52 points.

The move into L3 gives Hotshot and OG a chance to make their tougher D2 records look considerably better. Their forecasts of 102 and 67 add up to about 170, although OG has only two recent dry qualifying laps to judge. Rizla's 44 leaves room for his costly non-finishes; rbn's 102 gives more weight to what he has already achieved in D2. Aston have the strongest D0 foundation. Their supporting cars decide whether cloud is leading a good season or a BOTT-winning one.

Our verdict: second, effectively level with Ferrari at roughly 850 points. Aston have our D0 favourites and enough opportunity in D3 to chase Williams. Cloud can lead this challenge; Hotshot and OG need to give him the supporting score.

3. Ferrari: the lower three grids make this a title bid

Team Principal: Sammy278 · Season 7: second, 1,217 points

DivisionDiv	Driver	Licence change	Qualifying gap (laps)	Recent points/race	S8 pointsPoints
D0	piastrigoat	L0 → L0	0.11% (11)	S7 D0: 13.64 (11 starts)	91
D0	Sammy278	L0 → L0	0.69% (3)	S7 D0: 5.00 (3 starts)	46
D1	xAQxFr	L1 → L1	0.92% (16)	S7 D1: 8.11 (9 starts)	63
D1	BULLDOGGER47	L1 → L1	0.98% (9)	S7 D1: 8.10 (10 starts)	61
D2	kyotonic	L2 → L2	1.06% (10)	S7 D2: 12.00 (10 starts)	105
D2	Kartingtom141	L1 → L2	1.54% (4)	S7 D0: 3.00 (4 starts)	89
D3	ContexRL	L4 → L3	1.88% (10)	S7 D3: 10.80 (10 starts)	130
D3	Aban-96-	L2 → L3	2.50% (2)	S7 D2: 1.00 (2 starts)	99
E3	geo2002	L4 → L3	2.00% (12)	S7 D4: 7.64 (11 starts)	79
E3	L3on Tyl3r2500	L4 → L3	2.24% (11)	S7 D4: 8.88 (8 starts)	85

Ferrari know how to win BOTT. Four consecutive titles set the original standard, and second last season keeps Sammy's team firmly in the conversation. This squad gives them another proper chance. We expect their biggest advantage in D3, with D2 and E3 doing enough to keep the overall title within reach.

Piastri gives Ferrari a D0 driver they can trust. He finished all 11 starts last season, scored 150 points and took a win and four podiums. His qualifying pace also suggests there is more available. Sammy scored 163 points from 13 D1 starts in Season 6, but made only three D0 appearances last season. Ferrari need him racing regularly again. Piastri cannot carry both cars' share of a title bid.

XAQ's versatility gives Ferrari options without requiring us to guess their eventual substitute strategy. Last season he reached the podium in D0, D1 and D2, winning twice in D2. His nine D1 starts produced two podiums and 73 points. Bulldogger has a particularly good earlier D2 campaign, with five Season 6 wins and seven podiums, followed by one podium and 81 points in ten Season 7 D1 starts. Together they have enough pace and experience to threaten the leading D1 teams, but Cadillac's six recent wins at this level are a more direct basis for choosing a favourite.

Kyotonic gives D2 a proven centre. Ten starts brought a win, two podiums, 120 points and no non-finishes. Kartingtom has a very different record: four D0 appearances, all completed, but only 12 points. His move into D2 needs to establish where he sits in this field. A finish record helps a BOTT team; the new division must turn those finishes into a larger return.

Ferrari's L3 cars are where this title bid gets serious. Contex scored 202 points with four podiums in Season 6 D3, then 108 points and two podiums from ten Season 7 D3 starts. We make him the leading D3 scorer again at 130. Aban's three Season 5 D2 wins give the second car a tempting past record, but he raced only twice last season and retired once. His return is one of Ferrari's biggest opportunities, and one of their biggest questions.

Geo and L3on give E3 similarly useful history. Geo won five Season 5 E3 races; the most recent D4 season brought one podium and 84 points from 11 starts. L3on won once in three Season 7 D3 outings and took another podium during eight D4 starts. Geo's earlier campaign establishes a ceiling, while L3on's recent win shows the pairing is more than a collection of old achievements. Producing those stronger weekends repeatedly would make Ferrari's lower grids a serious advantage.

D2, D3 and E3 are expected to contribute about 190, 230 and 160 points. Together that is roughly 590, giving Ferrari a way to win BOTT without winning D0. Contex leads the D3 forecast at 130, with Aban's 99 depending on an older winner finding that form again.

Kartingtom's 89 is another reason the licence changes suit Ferrari. Four completed D0 races brought just 12 points; the same ability should pay better in D2. His 1.54 per cent qualifying gap is encouraging, although four laps are too few to settle the argument. Ferrari would get our vote on qualifying alone. We give Williams the final nod because their race records offer more reason to expect the speed to keep producing points.

Our verdict: third on the table, almost inseparable from Aston at roughly 850 points. We pick Ferrari for the D3 constructors' title and expect D2 and E3 to keep them in the BOTT fight. Aban returning well and Kartingtom making the most of D2 could be enough to change the order.

4. Cadillac: D1 can lead, but the supporting score decides the title

Team Principal: TheShrizzzler · Season 7: fifth, 797 points

DivisionDiv	Driver	Licence change	Qualifying gap (laps)	Recent points/race	S8 pointsPoints
D0	Karl Verghese	L0 → L0	0.20% (9)	S7 D0: 15.00 (9 starts)	106
D0	Adrian Andrasov	L0 → L0	0.15% (2)	S7 D0: 12.50 (2 starts)	73
D1	Darth Ussh	L1 → L1	0.69% (19)	S7 D1: 16.25 (12 starts)	88
D1	PolyTromp	L1 → L1	0.60% (8)	S7 D1: 20.67 (6 starts)	115
D2	Lord DabFoot	L3 → L2	1.30% (7)	S7 D2: 7.86 (7 starts)	69
D2	Swith	L1 → L2	1.18% (4)	S7 D1: 3.83 (6 starts)	69
D3	Jan	L2 → L3	2.09% (3)	S7 D2: 1.80 (5 starts)	99
D3	Jacko	L3 → L3	2.42% (12)	S7 D3: 9.33 (12 starts)	92
E3	bigwoottz	L4 → L3	2.84% (8)	S7 D4: 6.60 (10 starts)	45
E3	Opts Tryhard	L3 → L3	2.68% (12)	S7 D3: 3.13 (8 starts)	37

Cadillac should be the team to beat in D1. Ussh won the Season 7 championship with 195 points, three wins and six podiums from 12 completed races. Poly won three of his six D1 starts, took four podiums and finished every one. That is six wins and ten podiums from 18 appearances in the division they will race again. Cadillac have signed a pairing with very little left to prove about its speed.

They do still need Poly for a full season. His six-start scoring rate is excellent, but Cadillac cannot plan around half a campaign. With both drivers present, we expect a D1 constructors' title. A few missed weekends would make that advantage much easier for HP and Webbah to take away.

Karl gives Cadillac another proper scorer in D0. Nine starts last season brought a win, two podiums and 135 points, with no non-finish or penalty point. Adrian took a pole and a podium in just two appearances. The speed is there, but two races do not tell us how dependable his full-season return will be. Cadillac need the quick second car to become a regular one.

The D2 pairing is more about improvement than overwhelming past output. Lord DabFoot reached the podium once in seven Season 7 D2 starts; two non-finishes and ten penalty points reduced the campaign's value. Swith arrives from D1, where six appearances produced 23 points and two non-finishes. His qualifying pace supports competitiveness in L2, but this pair needs to turn that prospect into sustained scoring. D1 cannot do all the repairs.

Jacko offers exactly the sort of foundation that helps a team built around faster names. He completed all 12 D3 starts, gained 31 places and scored 112 points last season. Jan has the higher historical ceiling: his Season 5 E3 campaign produced five podiums, followed by four more and a win in Season 6 E3. His five Season 7 D2 starts yielded nine points and two non-finishes. Returning to an L3 grid creates an opportunity to recover the stronger record, rather than a reason to assume it has already returned.

Bigwoottz improved on his grid position in eight of ten D4 starts and had only one non-finish. Opts brings 56 career starts and five podiums, but none of those podiums came in Season 7; his latest D3 campaign produced 25 points in eight starts. Their E3 partnership can supply useful support. Cadillac would become much harder to beat if it began challenging the stronger L3 pairings regularly.

Cadillac lead the D1 forecast at around 200 points: 115 from Poly and 88 from Ussh. The new opposition and a longer run of appearances make those totals more cautious than simply repeating last season's winning rates. Even so, this is the division Cadillac should use to attack.

The problem is the score around it. Their D1 edge over Williams is only about 21 points; Williams are expected to take back roughly 96 in D2 and 68 in E3. Jan's 99 and Jacko's 92 can keep D3 competitive. E3's roughly 80 points is the clearest weakness. Ussh and Poly can win their own fight and still need help to win BOTT.

Our verdict: fourth, roughly 790 points. Ussh and Poly can win D1 and Cadillac can still lose BOTT. Williams are expected to take back far more in D2 and E3 than Cadillac gain in D1. The rest of the squad has to close that gap for the title bid to work.

5. VCARB: two promoted scorers and two major unknowns

Team Principal: ForestalWaif1 · Season 7: eighth, 401 points

DivisionDiv	Driver	Licence change	Qualifying gap (laps)	Recent points/race	S8 pointsPoints
D0	ARM Zezin	L0 → L0	0.43% (2)	S7 D0: 0.00 (2 starts)	40
D0	Techubi	L0 → L0	0.51% (6)	S7 D0: 6.50 (6 starts)	64
D1	TheMDog	L3 → L1	1.21% (12)	S7 D3: 23.29 (7 starts)	58
D1	Walter9500	L2 → L1	0.99% (11)	S7 D2: 15.18 (11 starts)	51
D2	ForestalWaif1	L2 → L2	3.01% (19)	S7 D2: 2.60 (10 starts)	11
D2	Kepa	L2; previous unavailable	unmeasured	no established record	80*
D3	Golden	L3; previous unavailable	unmeasured	no established record	76*
D3	DoctorB	L4 → L3	2.48% (1)	S7 D4: 0.00 (1 starts)	55
E3	Willow	L3 → L3	2.19% (4)	S7 D3: 8.50 (2 starts)	92
E3	MilitaryMaple18	L3 → L3	4.57% (1)	S7 D2: 0.00 (1 starts)	56

Forestal has won this championship before. VCARB beat McLaren by 13 points in Season 6, then fell to eighth the following season. His return gives them a principal who knows how close this fight can get. The signed squad should improve on 401 points, but fifth in our table asks quite a lot of two newcomers and two newly promoted drivers.

MDog and Walter earned their promotions. MDog won five of seven D3 starts and two of five D2 appearances last season, finishing all 14 races across three divisions. Walter took a win and five podiums in 11 D2 starts, with no non-finishes or penalty points. That is excellent work. Their D1 record is only seven points from three combined starts, though. We expect them to find this season much harder than the last one, even with that quality behind them.

Techubi's record provides a sharper historical contrast. Eight Season 6 E1 victories and nine podiums establish a serious past ceiling. Six Season 7 D0 starts yielded 39 points, no podiums and three non-finishes. Zezin also has an earlier E1 win, but his two D0 starts last season produced no points and one non-finish. The D0 pairing has more pedigree than its most recent output; VCARB need it to become current performance again.

Forestal's own finish record gives D2 some stability. He completed all 21 starts last season without a penalty point and gained 65 places, including 23 across four D0 appearances. His ten D2 starts brought only 26 points. Getting a car home and improving its starting position are useful team qualities, but this division needs a larger scoring return. Kepa arrives without an established IMS race record, leaving his part of the pairing open to the first actual results.

Golden also arrives without an established IMS race record, while DoctorB's sole start ended 14th in D4. VCARB are committing their D3 score to a pairing with almost everything still to demonstrate. If they prove competitive, they can change the scale of Forestal's season quickly.

Willow and Maple give E3 older experience rather than an established recent partnership. Willow has a career win and two podiums, but made only four official starts in Season 7. Maple has two career wins and nine podiums, followed by just one Season 7 D2 appearance. Their records contain stronger racing than that recent activity shows. Regular returns would be the first step towards using it.

MDog earned 23.29 points per race in D3; Walter earned 15.18 in D2. Their D1 forecasts are 58 and 51 across ten rounds. Promotion changes what those old rates promise. Their wins and podiums show quality, but their three combined D1 appearances brought just seven points. They have to build a new record here.

Kepa and Golden account for around 156 of VCARB's predicted points, and neither has an established IMS race record. That makes fifth one of the table's shakier calls. Remove those estimates and VCARB sit near 430, below Red Bull and Audi. Willow's 92 and Maple's 56 give Forestal useful E3 support; the first races from his newcomers will tell us whether the rest of this prediction holds up.

Our verdict: fifth, roughly 580 points. We like MDog and Walter, but promotion makes their old returns much harder to repeat. Kepa and Golden's results could move VCARB either way very quickly. Forestal has a lot to discover before this resembles another title-winning squad.

6. Red Bull: the speed must survive promotion and reach the flag

Team Principal: Aardvark · Season 7: third, 990 points

DivisionDiv	Driver	Licence change	Qualifying gap (laps)	Recent points/race	S8 pointsPoints
D0	MacoDelVolante	L1 → L0	0.41% (4)	S7 D1: 19.75 (4 starts)	60
D0	Lorenz Patten	L0 → L0	0.33% (4)	S7 D0: 10.25 (4 starts)	65
D1	Rickk116	L1 → L1	1.07% (8)	S7 D1: 6.63 (8 starts)	50
D1	gennaro1173	L2 → L1	0.90% (10)	S7 D2: 11.60 (5 starts)	44
D2	AAardvark	L2 → L2	1.54% (8; S6)	S6 E3: 20.67 (9 starts)	53
D2	Zloober	L4 → L2	1.57% (3)	S7 D4: 22.00 (3 starts)	45
D3	atmjosh15	L4 → L3	2.61% (11)	S7 D3: 4.91 (11 starts)	57
D3	ELITE HEAT SHOW	L4 → L3	3.08% (15)	S7 D3: 1.75 (12 starts)	12
E3	Ceetee19	L4 → L3	2.35% (7)	S7 D4: 8.50 (10 starts)	68
E3	Tullo_Formula1	L3 → L3	1.33% (10)	S7 D3: 5.75 (8 starts)	101

Red Bull are asking a newly promoted driver and a recent D0 winner to keep their upper-grid score competitive. Maco took four poles, a win and two podiums from four Season 7 D1 starts. He deserved the move to L0; racing cloud every week is the next test. Lorenz has already won in D0, but retired from two of his four starts last season. Both cars should be quick. Red Bull need more of those quick weekends to survive to the flag.

Rick's two wins and five podiums in Season 6 E2 were followed by no podiums in eight Season 7 D1 starts. Gen reached the podium in both D1 and D2 last season and has three career wins, but five D1 starts yielded 30 points. His qualifying pace is encouraging. Red Bull need the pair to establish a stronger weekly D1 return than their latest campaigns provide.

Aardvark has three wins, six podiums and five poles from nine Season 6 E3 starts to call on, but made no official Season 7 appearance. Zloober has three podiums from three D4 races and now jumps two licence levels. We expect 53 and 45 points from them in D2. Their old results make the pairing interesting; the current opposition makes it difficult to predict much more until they race.

Josh and ELITE HEAT SHOW—EHS—offer a steadier D3 foundation. Josh completed all 11 starts last season, although his 54 points were well below the 172 and two podiums he produced in Season 6 D3. EHS finished all 16 of his Season 7 starts across D3 and D4, with only one penalty point. His regular presence can help keep the team represented, but 21 points from 12 D3 races also show the scoring improvement Red Bull need.

Tullo is the driver who could make this forecast look too cautious. His dry qualifying pace was quicker than the other signed L3 drivers in the licence assessment, and he won once in eight Season 7 D3 starts. He also lost 39 places across those races. That is a lot of speed being left unused. Ceetee scored 85 points, took a podium and gained 22 places from ten D4 starts. We pick their E3 pairing to lead the division, but Tullo needs to make much better use of where he qualifies.

Maco's 19.75 points per race in four D1 starts becomes a 60-point D0 forecast over ten rounds. That is the cost of moving from the front of D1 into cloud and Karl's company. Lorenz adds 65, with his D0 win weighed against two non-finishes from four recent starts.

D2 is expected to supply about 100 points, split between Aardvark's 53 and Zloober's 45. An older E3-winning campaign and three D4 podiums offer promise, but do not settle how either will fare here. E3 is the strongest projected division at roughly 170, led by Tullo's 101. He has the qualifying speed to earn more. Red Bull need him to keep it through the race, and their D0 pair to lose fewer strong weekends.

Our verdict: sixth, roughly 550 points, with our E3 constructors' pick. Tullo and Ceetee can win their division; the D0 retirements and difficult D2 moves leave too much ground to make Red Bull a BOTT favourite. Those are the two places Aardvark needs a better return.

7. Audi: Higosh's biggest jump is still ahead of him

Team Principal: Jean_Claude04 · Season 7: tenth, 340 points

DivisionDiv	Driver	Licence change	Qualifying gap (laps)	Recent points/race	S8 pointsPoints
D0	Magnussen Cube	L0 → L0	0.69% (3)	S7 D0: 8.00 (3 starts)	42
D0	Higosh!	L4 → L1	0.94% (10)	S7 D4: 22.92 (12 starts)	54
D1	alexuk6420	L1; previous unavailable	0.54% (1)	S7 D1: 23.00 (1 starts)	100
D1	Arti Moreno	L1 → L2	1.29% (7)	S7 D1: 0.80 (5 starts)	24
D2	McBeth655	L4 → L2	1.56% (10)	S7 D4: 16.45 (11 starts)	40
D2	OnlineGuy99	L4 → L2	1.66% (12)	S7 D3: 16.30 (10 starts)	30
D3	PCPADDLEBOY	L4 → L3	3.12% (4)	S7 D4: 1.00 (3 starts)	9
D3	𝑱_𝑪ø𝒊33	L3 → L3	2.60% (3)	S7 D3: 4.67 (3 starts)	57
E3	Jean_Claude04	L3 → L3	2.20% (8)	S7 D3: 6.60 (10 starts)	70
E3	MrShiesty_1769	L4 → L3	2.04% (8)	S7 D4: 5.22 (9 starts)	68

Higosh faces the biggest change of anyone in this preview. Six wins, nine podiums and nine poles from 12 D4 starts took him from L4 to L1. Audi have then signed him for D0. His qualifying pace made the L1 promotion convincing; the team are asking him to go a division further. That leaves a steep gap between the driver who dominated D4 and the opposition he now has to score against.

The five-point BOTT finish bonus gives that decision a practical reward. Magnussen Cube supplies the other D0 car, with 24 points in three Season 7 starts, two completed and one ending in a non-finish. There is enough here to assess a scoring opportunity, but too little top-level race evidence to choose Audi over the established D0 pairings.

Alex's sole Season 7 D1 appearance ended second. It is an excellent result with which to begin, and one race from which to project a season. Arti's five D1 starts produced four points and three non-finishes. Although his L2 licence does not prevent him taking the D1 assignment, it makes the level of opposition an essential part of the forecast. Audi need repeated appearances from Alex and a much more complete race from Arti before this pairing becomes a dependable source of BOTT points.

McBeth and Online have also earned their moves, and also face a very different season. McBeth took seven D4 podiums in 11 starts, added another in two D3 appearances and finished every race he entered. Online scored 163 points with two wins and four podiums from ten D3 starts. Audi have signed drivers who know how to keep scoring near the front. The problem is that D2 puts jhazztan, pwjones, Kyotonic and Kartingtom in their way. We cannot carry those old podium rates straight across.

PCPADDLEBOY and J_Coi carry much less evidence in D3. PC had three non-finishes in four official starts last season; J_Coi completed his three D3 races and scored 14 points. That gives Audi a clear immediate target: keep both cars running and build a more substantial set of results before treating the pairing as a championship strength.

Jean's E3 move offers a chance to keep the winning part of last season while reducing its losses. Ten D3 starts produced a win, two podiums and five non-finishes. Shiesty took a D4 podium and 47 points from nine starts, with two non-finishes of his own. There is more race experience in this pairing than Audi's D3 cars, but the same finish-first requirement remains.

Higosh's 22.92 points per race in D4 becomes just 54 predicted BOTT points from ten D0 starts. Around 45 of those come from the finish bonus. That tells us how hard Audi's chosen assignment is: we expect getting home to pay much more than his ordinary result. The six D4 wins earned him promotion. Audi are giving him a very demanding place to use it.

McBeth and Online are expected to contribute 40 and 30 in D2. Their previous rates of 16.45 and 16.30 points per race meet a field containing Kyotonic, Kartingtom, jhazztan and pwjones. Alex's 100 is a promising D1 estimate with little recent racing behind it. Jean and Shiesty supply roughly 140 together, making E3 Audi's largest expected contribution. The promoted drivers need to beat these cautious forecasts for the team to climb.

Our verdict: seventh, roughly 490 points. Audi have taken on several of the biggest promotions at once. Higosh's finish bonus helps BOTT, but the team need their promoted drivers to beat these cautious forecasts if they want to climb further.

8. McLaren: a 380-point signed core, with three seats still to add

Team Principal: Charlotte · Season 7: ninth, 356 points

DivisionDiv	Driver	Licence change	Qualifying gap (laps)	Recent points/race	S8 pointsPoints
D0	Charlotte	L2 → L2	1.39% (4)	S7 D1: 0.50 (4 starts)	39
D0	Meowsy	L0; previous unavailable	0.29% (9; S6)	S6 1: 18.44 (9 starts)	117
D1	John Marco	L2 → L1	1.43% (8)	S7 D1: 5.83 (6 starts)	39
D1	Erion._	L1 → L1	1.29% (7)	S7 D1: 13.14 (7 starts)	60
D2	kelloggsrule	L3 → L2	1.58% (9)	S7 D3: 15.63 (8 starts)	44
D2	Tedhead	L1 → L2	1.19% (9)	S7 D1: 2.60 (10 starts)	68
D3	Poulparindo4256	L4 → L3	3.48% (10)	S7 D3: 1.09 (11 starts)	13
D3	USunsigned second seat	—	—	—	unforecast
E3	TUtwo unsigned seats	—	—	—	unforecast

McLaren have drivers who can rescue a bad starting position. Erion followed his Baku and Japan seconds with a win from 14th at Monza. Seven D1 starts brought three podiums, 42 gained places and no non-finishes. John gained 53 places across ten D1 and D2 appearances, improving his starting position in nine. His D1 fourth places at Monza and Abu Dhabi came after difficult qualifying too. We know they can recover. McLaren would get more out of them if they had less ground to recover in the first place.

Their recent D1 record also keeps the forecast grounded. John's six starts there produced 35 points and no podiums, while his podium came in D2. Their ability to recover is established; a sustained front-running D1 campaign for both cars is still the next step. Erion has supplied the clearest evidence that it is possible.

Kelloggs has already shown he can race at the new level. His Season 7 D3 campaign brought a win and four podiums from eight starts, then a D2 podium on the same Monza weekend as his breakthrough win. Tedhead comes the other way after ten D1 starts. His qualifying pace gives us reason to expect more in L2, but four non-finishes and 12 penalty points cost him heavily last season. We expect 44 from Kelloggs and 68 from Ted. Both have a route to more; neither starts as our D2 favourite.

Meowsy's older record gives D0 a credible lead prospect. Four podiums and 166 points in nine Season 6 D1 starts followed a career that already contained wins. He made no official Season 7 appearance, so his return needs to be judged in current D0 company. Charlotte is taking the much steeper assignment from an L2 licence: four Season 7 D1 starts produced two points and a non-finish. The five-point BOTT bonus for a D0 finish helps her contribution, but finishing against this field is a demanding first requirement.

Poulparindo is McLaren's signed D3 reference. He has 66 career starts and gained 26 places in 11 D3 appearances last season, but scored 12 points and has yet to reach an IMS podium. The team can ask him for regular presence and more points at the finish. His eventual team-mate will receive a separate assessment when signed; the same applies to E3.

John's promotion and Tedhead's move into L2 pull in opposite directions. John is expected to score 39 in D1; Ted's 68 in D2 is a considerable improvement on the 2.60 points per race he earned in D1. The easier opposition helps, but the four non-finishes still need addressing. Kelloggs adds 44, with his D2 podium strengthening the case after promotion.

Meowsy supplies 117 of the roughly 160 predicted D0 points, using a qualifying record last updated in S6. Charlotte's 39 relies heavily on the finish bonus, which supplies around 36. The seven signed drivers total about 380. A second D3 driver and two E3 recruits will improve that number, but the rest of the squad already leaves McLaren a long way behind the title contenders. We expect recruitment to change their place in the midfield rather than turn this into a BOTT challenge.

Our verdict: eighth on signed contributions, roughly 380 points. Three good recruits can make McLaren much more competitive, and we will add their forecasts when they sign. We still see a midfield ceiling unless the existing cars deliver considerably more than their records suggest.

9. Alpine: Carlos needs recruitment and a larger return from the known cars

Team Principal: Carlos Velez · Vice-TP: Fredrumguit · Season 7: eleventh, 293 points

DivisionDiv	Driver	Licence change	Qualifying gap (laps)	Recent points/race	S8 pointsPoints
D0	Adaś	L0 → L0	0.61% (2)	S7 D0: 4.50 (2 starts)	40
D0	Zyrøz	L0 → L0	0.82% (3)	S7 D0: 2.00 (5 starts)	19
D2	Schokolade	L3 → L2	2.17% (12)	S7 D2: 6.60 (10 starts)	29
D2	BurzaJr	L2; previous unavailable	unmeasured	no established record	80*
D3	Carlos Velez	L4 → L3	2.76% (13)	S7 D3: 4.91 (11 starts)	45
D3	Fredrumguit	L4 → L3	3.81% (19)	S7 D3: 1.67 (12 starts)	8
E3	ash2811	L4 → L3	3.55% (4)	S7 D4: 1.33 (6 starts)	13
E3	LeeMI	L4 → L3	4.71% (3)	S7 D4: 0.20 (5 starts)	2
D1	TUtwo unsigned seats	—	—	—	unforecast

Carlos takes charge with Fred beside him, keeping two very familiar Alpine drivers together. That gives the team plenty of experience, but the recent results leave them a long way from a BOTT challenge. With eight drivers signed, this is the weakest projected squad. Filling D1 will help; the other four divisions need to help too.

The D0 pair have shown qualifying speed in small samples. Adaś made two Season 7 appearances, scoring nine points with one non-finish. Zyrøz raced five times, scoring ten points with three non-finishes. Those outcomes give Carlos a concrete first requirement: complete more of their races and score more often. Their speed leaves room for improvement, but neither has yet reached an IMS podium.

Schokolade is the most established scoring prospect in the signed upper half. His Season 5 E2 campaign brought a win and three podiums; ten Season 7 D2 starts yielded 66 points, a podium and 35 gained places, with two non-finishes. BurzaJr arrives without an established IMS race record. The pairing gives Alpine one driver whose strengths and losses are visible, and another whose competitive position will be established on track.

Carlos and Fred bring 176 career starts between them to D3. Carlos took a podium and 54 points from 11 races last season. Fred finished all 12 D3 starts and gained 55 places across his 21 Season 7 appearances, but his D3 score was only 20. Alpine can count on them being there. They need those appearances to pay better if the team is going to move up the table.

Ash finished all six D4 starts last season and gained places in five, while LeeMI also completed all five of his appearances. Their E3 pairing therefore begins with some recent finish reliability. The scoring was much smaller—eight points for Ash and one for Lee—and Lee accumulated 12 penalty points. A cleaner, more productive season would give Alpine support from a grid where steady points could change their weekends considerably.

The D1 pairing will be assessed when signed. Alpine's signed cars currently carry little recent podium scoring to offset the improvements required elsewhere.

Adaś and Zyrøz are expected to supply 40 and 19 points in D0. Completing more races is the first route to beating that forecast. Schokolade's 29 reflects the tougher L2 assignment, while BurzaJr's estimated 80 has no established IMS race record behind it. Alpine cannot yet count on that second D2 car delivering the number.

Carlos and Fred are expected to contribute about 50 points together, with Ash and Lee supplying only around 10. Completing D4 races was a useful start for the E3 pair; it does not yet give us reason to expect a large score against this field. The eight signed drivers total roughly 240. Even an excellent D1 pairing would be carrying a squad with too little coming from the other divisions. We expect those signings to help Alpine towards the midfield, with substantial improvement from the existing cars needed to go further.

Our verdict: ninth on signed contributions, roughly 240 points. D1 recruitment matters, but it cannot be the entire rebuild. We expect Alpine to remain below the leading group even with strong signings; Carlos needs a larger return from the drivers already here.

What can overturn the table?

Williams finish first in 43.1 per cent of the forecasted seasons. Aston and Ferrari each lead around 21 per cent, with Cadillac at 12.6 per cent. Those shares assume the opening squads race the full season; recruitment and later changes can alter the picture.

Williams' expected advantage over Aston is about 84 points. Their D2 pair are worth roughly 23 per round together: four weekends without a comparable return would cost about 94, enough to lose the lead. HP and pwjones missing three starts each without suitable replacements would cost roughly 79. The strength of a signing still has to become a car on the grid.

Reserve drivers can change the totals too. Without reserve opposition, Williams' forecast rises from 930 to about 1,140, while Aston and Ferrari both reach around 1,050. The leading group stays much the same. How many competitive cars turn up changes how many points are available to each team.

Further licence changes can force another reshuffle. A driver dominating a lower field may move beyond the seat supplying that advantage. If Higosh reaches L0, his five-point D0 finish bonus disappears. The principal then has to protect the team's score while finding the driver an appropriate new challenge.

China and Silverstone add reverse sprints, with the second at the finale. Tullo's qualifying speed, McLaren's recoveries and the promoted drivers' ability to finish give those races particular interest. The sprint points are included in our totals; traffic and incidents can make them fall very differently.

Williams get our vote because jhazztan and pwjones should earn much more in D2 than the old standings suggest, HP has already delivered big D1 returns, and Trident keeps D3 dependable. Aston can take the biggest bite out of them in D0. Ferrari can outscore them in D3. Cadillac's D1 pair should win their own fight. We expect Williams to stay ahead because the damage in those divisions is smaller than the points they collect elsewhere.

Singapore begins the test. The principals have recruited for a different league; their drivers now have to show what the old results are worth in it.

Table notes: points per race include retirements and historical sprint/bonus points for the named campaign. Qualifying gaps are typical dry laps; older seasons are marked and a handful of laps deserves caution. Driver points are rounded separately from team totals. A star marks a provisional estimate for a driver without an established record. Vacancies remain unforecast.

Our predicted division constructors’ champions

The same driver forecasts give us five different division winners. These totals exclude the BOTT-only D0 finish bonus and are added before rounding, so a pair can differ by a point from the sum of its rounded driver figures. The five empty seats remain unforecast.

- D0 — Aston Martin, 264 points. Cloud and Raptorr give Aston the strongest D0 pairing, ahead of Cadillac on 179. Cloud alone is forecast to score 175; the second car is what makes the division title such a strong pick.

- D1 — Cadillac, 203 points. Ussh and Poly get our vote, with Williams next on 181. Their six wins from 18 D1 appearances last season make this the most straightforward place for Cadillac to attack.

- D2 — Williams, 234 points. Jhazztan and pwjones make the most of moving down from harder fields. Ferrari follow on 194. This is the division that does the most to put Williams ahead in BOTT.

- D3 — Ferrari, 228 points. Contex and Aban lead Williams, whose Trident–ximqf pairing is forecast to score 208. Contex supplies the stronger recent record; Aban returning well is what gives Ferrari the edge.

- E3 — Red Bull, 168 points. Tullo and Ceetee narrowly beat Ferrari on 163. A gap of about five points across the season makes this our closest division call. One better weekend from Geo or L3on could reverse it.

Williams are our BOTT pick with only one predicted division title. Aston, Cadillac, Ferrari and Red Bull each have a pairing we expect to beat them somewhere. Zopz's advantage is how much the other cars keep contributing while those battles are being fought.